AST SpaceMobile's Future Rocket – First Thoughts
Nov. 6, 2026
By Caleb Henry
Heavily capitalized constellation startup AST SpaceMobile and launch provider Firefly Aerospace announced Nov. 6 a $1.3 billion deal that will culminate in AST creating its own rocket.
Slated to debut in late 2028, the Blacklift rocket will use Firefly Miranda engines, and is designed to carry up to 20 metric tons, sufficient to loft five BlueBird satellites per launch.
The deal charts a path for AST to become a vertically integrated company with control over satellite manufacturing and launch, owning key pillars of the constellation business at a time when access to orbit is in very short supply.
With launch, AST gains ownership economics that can let the company avoid rising launch prices. The move follows a trend first demonstrated by SpaceX with Starlink and now amplified by Rocket Lab with Iridium and Blue Origin with TeraWave.
Firefly plans to disclose more details on Tuesday, Nov. 10 during its earnings call, followed by AST, which plans a more expansive deal discussion Thursday, Nov. 12. Quilty Space will analyze this deal in a longer report after these two events. For now, here is our initial take.
Late, but a smart move. ASTS has significant launch needs that have only increased over the years. What started as a single constellation is now growing into multiple as the company plans to target a range of different markets including, per AST's last earnings call, "radar, GPS, AI, cloud computing, IoT," and other "strategic applications." AST says its first 100 satellites are already covered by existing launch contracts – so far, the company has launched with Blue Origin, ISRO and SpaceX – meaning Blacklift is needed for expansions beyond the initial direct-to-device fleet.
The schedule question. Is a first launch in ~24 months realistic? Precedent says no – every medium or heavy lift rocket in recent history has run at least three years late. That includes even storied launcher like SpaceX's Falcon 9 (2010 first launch vs 2007 goal), Arianespace's Ariane 6 (2024 first launch vs 2020 goal), and Rocket Lab's Neutron (now tracking for 2027 vs an initial goal of 2024). What ASTS's Blacklift rocket has in its favor is a mature engine. Firefly has test fired Miranda engines for 4,200 seconds, what the company says is equal to approximately 20 full first stage flights. That should enable ASTS to avoid the type of engine delays that beset ULA's Vulcan. Still, how much engine maturity compresses total vehicle development is unclear.
A solo fix. Quilty Space estimates the space industry is short 150 medium to heavy lift launches through the rest of the decade. That number doubles if SpaceX doesn't meaningfully participate in the Space Force's ever-growing NSSL program. Blacklift is currently envisioned as an AST-only rocket, which makes sense because aside from Amazon Leo, AST is arguably the satellite operator most acutely affected by the launch shortage. AST's 2020 SPAC presentation had the company flying 168 satellites in 2025; it has 13 in orbit. The rest of the industry will have to find other rides while the company prioritizes its own needs.
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