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First Take: What We Think Blue Origin’s TeraWave Actually Is (and Isn’t)

Updated: 6 hours ago

Jan. 21, 2026 by Quilty Space Editorial Board

SpaceX received ~$216M in milestone payments in 2025 under its Starship HLS contract. Roughly $3B of a $4.5B potential award has been obligated to date, with ~$2.7B disbursed, reflecting a contract front-loaded with early- and mid-phase milestones.

Our initial review of Blue Origin’s FCC filings indicates that TeraWave is a space-based transport backbone, not a consumer or managed-access satellite network. The system is positioned as an alternative or complement to terrestrial and subsea fiber, optimized to move very large volumes of data between fixed endpoints for enterprise, data center | cloud providers, and government (civil, defense, national security).

Classification is key

TeraWave is an NGSO Fixed-Satellite Service (FSS) system. FSS, by definition, implies fixed locations, high-gain antennas, scheduled capacity, and infrastructure-style economics, rather than mobile or population-based access.

Nothing in the filing resembles a consumer broadband or mobility service:

  • No subscriber counts

  • No population coverage framing

  • No mobility classes or handheld terminals


This is infrastructure, not retail connectivity.


How the system is structured

The architecture is explicitly multi-orbit and layered:

  • LEO (5,280 satellites) acts as the access layer, using Q | V-band links to connect fixed user terminals at enterprise and government locations.

  • MEO (128 satellites) forms a long-haul transport layer, using laserlinks to move traffic across the network.

  • Ground delivery is handled via optical and E-band RF gateways, which aggregate traffic and interface with terrestrial networks.


This is a backbone design: traffic enters the system at fixed sites, moves across a dedicated transport layer, and exits near its destination to rejoin terrestrial infrastructure.


The press release references optical downlink capacity of up to 6 Tbps. Whether that figure reflects per-satellite performance or aggregate system capacity is not specified, though aggregate capacity is the most plausible interpretation. What is clear is that the architecture assumes:

  • Laserlinks enable high aggregate network throughput

  • The satellites function as routers and transport nodes


Who the customers really are

In this model, a “customer” is not a person or device. It is a site.

Examples include:

  • A hyperscale data center like AWS

  • A government or defense facility

  • A remote but critical infrastructure node

  • A network exchange point or gateway - connected enterprise site


This is why large customer counts can coexist with very low user (100k) density. One site equals one customer, even if tens of thousands of people ultimately use the data behind it.


Why this looks like a hyperscaler play

The filing repeatedly cites:

  • Cloud migration

  • AI workloads

  • East–west traffic between data centers

  • The cost and fragility of fiber diversity


Those are hyperscaler problems, not ISP problems.


AWS is therefore a plausible anchor customer, even though no customer is named.

TeraWave looks well-suited for:

  • Data center interconnect

  • Burst capacity during replication events

  • Disaster recovery and continuity insurance

  • Physically diverse paths where fiber is constrained or geopolitically risky


That does not make it exclusive to hyperscalers, but it does strongly shape the design.


Why this is not an access-network competitor

TeraWave does not appear designed to:

  • Replace consumer broadband

  • Compete for managed satcom service contracts

  • Displace GEO or MEO service providers delivering end-to-end services

Instead, it functions as transport infrastructure that can sit beneath other services, including terrestrial networks and satellite access systems.


Technical ambition = real hurdles

The filing describes an ambitious system with meaningful execution risks:

  • Scaled deployment of Q | V-band phased-array user terminals, a capability that has not yet been demonstrated at commercial scale

  • Ultra-high-capacity optical terminals that remain unproven outside limited demonstrations

  • Severe rain fade and atmospheric sensitivity across Q | V- and E-band links

  • Gateway aggregation requirements in the multi-hundreds of gigabits per second

  • Long-haul laserlinks in MEO, with tighter pointing and control requirements than LEO

  • End-to-end orchestration at backbone scale, closer to Tier-1 carrier engineering than traditional satcom

These hurdles reinforce that this is a long-term infrastructure build, not a near-term commercial service launch.


Final Takeaways

TeraWave is best described as a space-based fiber corollary:

  • Fixed sites, not people

  • Capacity, not subscriptions

  • Guaranteed service levels, not "best effort"

  • Backbone economics, not ISP economics


The system’s design aligns with hyperscaler and government transport needs while remaining structurally complementary to existing satellite services (e.g., Amazon Leo).

While Blue Origin will likely pursue a vertically integrated approach, the TeraWave architecture leaves room for specialized partners. Optical ground station providers such as Cailabs are natural fits for the system’s optical ground segment, while companies like K2 Space, with platforms optimized for high-power payloads, could plausibly support the MEO transport layer if Blue Origin chooses not to build all spacecraft internally.


Perhaps the most consequential implication of TeraWave is on the launch side. A constellation of this scale would give Blue Origin a built-in anchor customer for New Glenn, mirroring the Starlink model of vertical integration. The flip side is that New Glenn capacity in the 2027–2028 timeframe would likely be constrained internally, leaving limited availability for third-party missions.




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©2025 Quilty Space. All Rights Reserved. Securities transactions conducted through StillPoint Capital, Member FINRA/SIPC, Tampa, FL. Chris Quilty and Justin Cadman of Quilty Space are Registered Representatives of the broker dealer StillPoint Capital, LLC. Quilty Space and StillPoint Capital, LLC are not affiliated entities. For more information on Registered Representatives or Broker Dealers please visit FINRA Broker Check. Certain older transactions were completed by Registered Representatives at their prior firms.

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