Challenging Quarter, Gen-3 Deployment And Global Wins Set 2026 Recovery​
 
Revenue Miss. Q3 revenue was $19.6M, down 13% y/y and 31% below consensus, marking the weakest quarter in two years. The decline stemmed from $4M in EOCL reductions and U.S. budget delays. The reductions are expected to carry through 2Q26, pending final budget approval.​
Profits under pressure. AEBITDA loss widened to $4.5M from a 0.7M profit a year ago, due to lower EOCL revenues and $9M of YTD LeoStella overhead. Excluding these impacts, Blacksky would have achieved breakeven. We expect profitability by 2026 as Gen-3 scales and backlog conversion accelerates (2026E AEBITDA: $18M).​
International strength. Non-U.S. demand remains the key growth driver, contributing 50% of Q3 revenues and >90% of the $322.7M backlog. Blacksky secured $60M in international awards, including a $30M Gen-3 ISR contract with a strategic defense customer.