2026 To Be a Transition Year, But Compelling Growth Narrative Taking Hold.
A transition year. Iridium ended 2025 on a soft note and offered an uninspiring forecast for 2026, reflecting ongoing Starlink headwinds, $17M in incremental incentive comp, and higher spending in support of multiple product launches next year.
Spectrum in play. Iridium indicated that it will not rule out potential spectrum alliances but then reiterated its view that the spectrum is best used to provide highly reliable, scalable communications services. Investors liked the nod, bidding the stock up 17%.
Service slowdown. Management forecast service growth to slow to 0%-2% vs. a trailing 5-year CAGR of 9.5% due to modest IoT growth (Garmin contract) and a ~7% maritime revenue decline. We are modeling 5% growth in 2027 and expect growth to accelerate in 2028 and beyond.
$200M upside in 2030. That’s the incremental revenue that Iridium expects from PNT ($100M), maritime GMDSS, and Iridium NTN. The revenue impact from new products/services will be minimal in 2026 but should have an impact in 2027.
Up on Aviation. Building on its Aerion position, Iridium is targeting a $1B addressable market in cockpit safety comms and related markets. Management teased out the possibility of a space-based VHF follow-on.