Timing Driven Miss, Recovery Pushed into 2026
 
Results miss. Spire reported Q3 revenue of $12.7M, down 26% y/y (ex-maritime) and 41% below consensus. The shortfall was timing driven, with $6-8M of revenue deferred due to an 8-week delay in customer satellite launches and timing of a $7M (annual) NASA contract.
 
Profit under pressure. AEBITDA loss widened to $11.8M (vs -3M last year), reflecting revenue declines, maritime divestment, and a 9% increase in opex. G&A increased 12% due to higher legal expenses, while R&D rose 62% due to reclassification of engineering costs from cost of revenue.
 
Backlog 3x TTM revenue. Backlog increased 11.5% y/y to $223M, with ~$70M expected to convert into revenue in 2026