The third installment of our Starlink Financial deep-dive series is now live. This Quilty Space exclusive examines SpaceX’s mid-2025 financial performance and extends our bottom-up forecast through 2026. Part checkup, part roadmap, our analysis reviews traction across consumer, maritime, aviation, government, and DTC segments, before sharing projections of where the growth curve bends next.
 
Highlights & Takeaways:
Subscriber Stampede: Consumer outlook revised to 8.2M subs by YE’25, sustaining double-digit growth while many rivals remain stuck at the gate.
 
Consumer Cash Cushion: Pricing pivots haven’t dented topline, with consumer revenues still on track for $10.3B by 2026.
 
EBITDA Climb: Operating leverage intensifies, pushing EBITDA toward $11B by 2026E — nearly doubling from 2024 levels.
 
FCF Flightpath: Positive since 2024, free cash flow accelerates to ~$5B by 2026, marking Starlink’s evolution from capital sink to profit spigot.
 
India Unlocks: Regulatory clearance tees up one of the most significant new-market rollouts on Starlink’s global map.
 
Maritime Market Swells: Vessel installs jump to 130k by 2026, cementing Starlink as the ubiquitous LEO layer at sea.
 
IFC Liftoff: Aviation revenues climb nearly 10x by 2026, powered by marquee airline deals, new STCs, and a steady installation cadence.
 
Military Momentum: U.S. government revenues ramp as recurring Starshield service and constellation contracts galvanize under the Golden Dome.
 
DTC Reset: Progress continues, but revenues remain a 2026+ story. (Note: DTC revenues are not modeled in this forecast. SpaceX’s late-breaking 50 MHz MSS spectrum announcement on Sept. 8 rewrites the upside, but until integration, regulation, and handset adoption timelines firm up, DTC revenue projections will be rolled into our next model.).
 
Satellite + Launch Engine: Expanded manufacturing, a shifting vehicle mix, and sustained launch cadence keep throughput aligned with demand, as we look ahead to Starship’s service debut in 2026.
 
Competitive Chasm: With rivals still grounded in delays, Starlink extends its first-mover lead across consumer and mobility markets.
 
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