FY26 Remains on Track Awaiting ViaSat-3; Starlink Loss Drops Aviation Backlog by 300+
 
Q3 results in-line. Q3 revenues grew 3% but EBITDA declined 2%, reflecting a 3% decline in the Communications segment. Management affirmed all elements of full-year operational guidance. 
Weak orders. Overall orders declined 10% y/y and 35% sequentially, causing the B2B to dip below 1.0x for the first time in nine quarters (0.8x).  Backlog was flat sequentially but up 10% y/y to $3.9B.  
DATs revenue grew 9% in the quarter and 9% YTD, but management continues to forecast mid-teens growth, suggesting a monster Q4.   
Aviation revs up 15%. Viasat installed 90 commercial aircraft in Q3 (TTM average ~120), lifting the installed base by 8%.  The backlog declined by 280 aircraft to a multi-year low of 1,110 likely due to Lufthansa’s decision to roll out Starlink on 850 aircraft.
Maritime turnaround? Maritime revenues declined for the seventh straight quarter (down 3%) and the vessel count declined 6% due to ongoing Starlink-driven churn. Viasat expects maritime to grow in Q4, aided by NexusWave deployments (2,600 orders or 19% of the installed base) and the addition of ViaSat-3 capacity.