Assessing Kuiper’s Satellite Manufacturing Delays
- Caleb Henry
- Apr 22
- 2 min read
Updated: Jun 24
Apr 23 - Written by Caleb Henry
As the next big LEO constellation, Kuiper’s delays have attracted significant attention, but the question of how serious the delays are has gone unanswered. A comparative analysis of other large LEO constellations shows Kuiper is moving at a pace consistent with early industry precedent.
If Kuiper’s April 28 launch date holds, it will take the company 570 days to go from prototype launch to first batch launch. That’s 115 days longer than Starlink, and more than 200 days longer than OneWeb, but faster than the U.S. Space Development Agency by about 70 days.
Serial satellite manufacturing consistently takes the industry longer to achieve than early estimates.
Starlink hoped to do as many as seven batch launches in its first year but only completed two in 2019. OneWeb aimed for as many as five but finished its first production year with just one launch. SDA planned a one-year gap, but contractor struggles and covid-induced setbacks doubled that time. And Telesat (not included in the chart), launched a prototype for its Lightspeed constellation in 2018, and has still yet to conduct a batch launch – the first is now slated for the second half of 2026.
Common reasons for delays include supply chain partners falling behind on parts deliveries, manufacturer redesigns that incorporate data from prototypes in orbit, and chronically underestimated learning curves when shifting from artisanal production into a mass manufacturing operation.
Precedent suggests Kuiper’s delays are normal and should resolve themselves as momentum builds. Plus, given the magnitude of Kuiper’s investment – estimated at $16.5-20 billion by Quilty Space, the FCC is fully expected to grant an extension on the company’s spectrum license. All Amazon needs to do now is execute.
