Is Oldspace Winning the Race to Orbit?

August 5, 2025 - Written by Caleb Henry

A Quilty Space chart counting the success rate of debut launches for orbital-class Western rockets.

The space industry has learned to treat first launch attempts with grace, given the elevated failure risk compared to later missions, as evidenced by the warm reception Gilmour Space received after the 14-second debut of its Eris rocket. From the beginning of the decade to present day, 16 new Western orbital-class rockets reached their launch pads for the first time – more than twice the number from 2000-2019 – but only four successfully completed their missions. And, the names of those who succeeded from the jump are mostly what has been branded “oldspace.”

The four flawless debuts of the decade were Avio with Vega C, Boeing with SLS, Blue Origin with New Glenn, and ULA with Vulcan.* The takeaway is clear: experience has its merits. Every player that succeeded on their maiden flight had knowledge from older rockets (mostly orbital, except for Blue Origin, which was solely a suborbital launch provider until this year).

Despite the hard times for new entrants, investor sentiment hasn’t waned. Launch startups continue to pull in impressive rounds, like Isar Aerospace’s €150M round in June, Firefly’s $50M investment from Northrop Grumman in May, and Astra’s $80M round disclosed in April.

Big names continue to gravitate to the sector as well, like billionaire Eric Schmidt taking the helm at Relativity Space in March, Turkish defense prime Roketsan’s unveiling of an orbital rocket last month (slated for 2027), and Japanese car maker Honda’s surprisingly clean suborbital reusable demonstrator launch in June.

A successful debut launch doesn’t always mean clear skies (see Vulcan’s second launch), and many startups have embraced the SpaceX philosophy of learning as you go (Starship is nine missions in and not yet commercially operational). But at a time when constellations, and soon Golden Dome, have strained global launch capacity, proving success with speed means a lot.

*Arianespace’s Ariane 6 was not counted because it failed to deploy customer payloads despite reaching orbit.