Small GEO satellites weighing less than 1,000 kg first emerged in 2018-2019 with three companies announcing orders for small GEOs. Two of these orders were subsequently cancelled (Saturn and Terran Orbital), while Astranis took more than four years to deliver its maiden satellite (Arcturus), which failed before commissioning.

Despite the shaky start, small GEOs have captured 44% of all commercial GEO orders over the past four years, and halfway through 2025, that trend appears to be holding. Manufacturers logged six GEO satellite orders YTD – four traditional multi-ton spacecraft, plus two small GEOs.

Astranis, winner of 12 out of 19 small GEO orders awarded since 2019, is also the only small GEO builder with satellites in orbit (five launched, four functioning). But competition is intensifying both domestically and internationally. In the U.S., CesiumAstro, Apex Space, and AscendArc all introduced small GEO platforms within the past year. In Europe, startups Swissto12 and ReOrbit have both secured anchor customers.

Can small GEOs bend the cost curve sufficiently to compete with Starlink? The jury’s still out, and if the industry can’t scale to double-digit satellite orders annually by 2030, it risks being overwhelmed by an onslaught of new LEO capacity from Kuiper and Lightspeed.

Fortunately, the government market (defense, intelligence, and civil) has emerged as the industry’s next major opportunity. Most satellite manufacturers rely on a mix of commercial, military, and civil space customers, providing a hedge against volatility in any one subsector.

DoD has been pitching disaggregation since the 2010s, trading singular large, exquisite satellites for several smaller spacecraft. Small GEOs provide an opportunity to do that while staying in GEO (and by extension, not requiring dozens or hundreds of satellites). Last year’s Commercial Space Integration Strategy further strengthens the case for government small GEOs as a resilient, industry-led development.

Small GEO providers may get a chance to prove themselves with DoD’s Protected Tactical Satcom-Global (PTS-G) program, now that the Space Force shelved its traditional prime-led (Boeing/Northrop) development effort (PTS-R) to a commercial-off-the-shelf approach. Not everything will go small, as evidenced by Boeing’s recent $2.8 billion deal for two Evolved Strategic Satellites, but the door is open for new entrants to make their presence known in high orbits.

Link: https://spacenews.com/space-force-scraps-satellite-procurement-shifts-to-more-flexible-strategy/

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