The Case for the Next Commercial Rocket
- Caleb Henry
- Sep 5
- 2 min read
September 5, 2025 - Written by Caleb Henry
Three years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the global space industry experienced the immediate removal of the flagship Soyuz medium-lift rocket, as well as the less active but still significant Proton heavy-lift rocket.
Two months later, Amazon Kuiper purchased upwards of 83 launches across Arianespace, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance, vacuuming up a massive portion of global launch capacity at a time when a supply-demand imbalance was quickly emerging.
Completing the trifecta of shortage-inducing events, Arianespace, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and ULA were all in the throes of transitioning from venerable but dated rockets to next-generation launchers, resulting in a ramp down of the tried and true in favor of the untested and new. All took two to three years longer than expected to debut, and have yet to achieve a high operational cadence.
SpaceX’s unprecedented scaling from 31 launches in 2021 to 136 launches in 2024 enabled the industry to avoid a launch crisis. But with Amazon poised to consume one-third or more of all new heavy lift capacity for the next 2-3 years, the industry is likely to remain supply-constrained through the balance of the decade. That could pose a problem for some of the many large constellations on the horizon.
Additional constellations awaiting launch in that time period include:
AST SpaceMobile for an initial 45-60 satellites, with long-term plans for 90-95, then potentially hundreds. Initial satellites are launching mainly with SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Eutelsat for 440 interim satellites to maintain the OneWeb constellation. Initial satellites appear set to launch on H3 rockets from MHI.
EchoStar’s 100-satellite direct-to-device constellation, for which no launch contracts have been announced.
Telesat’s Lightspeed constellation of 156-198 satellites, currently booked on 14 Falcon 9 rockets with SpaceX.
The Space Development Agency’s PWSA constellation of several hundred satellites, plus any additional capabilities added via Golden Dome.
These constellations and additional speculative fleets (Kuiper Gen-2, Yahsat/Viasat DTD, SES’s next-gen MEO) add to launch demand over the rest of the decade. This presents an opportunity for new players that can provide affordable, reliable and routine access to space.
New “constellation-optimized” rockets are on the horizon. Rocket Lab recently completed the launch pad for Neutron in Virginia, Relativity has started printing propulsion hardware for multiple Terran R rockets, and Firefly raised $868 million in its IPO to support the Eclipse rocket, among other projects. All three are expected to debut in 2026.
Whether or not the market can support six medium to heavy lift launch providers from the U.S. alone – plus Starship – is an open question, but for the remainder of the decade launch demand is likely to remain high, presenting an opportunity for one or more new players to establish themselves in the pecking order.
