1/14/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry We’re old enough to remember when SpaceX upbraided ULA for charging hundreds of millions of dollars for military launches. Congress, NASA, and many others listened, and though it was an uphill, litigious battle, SpaceX prevailed, cleaving off a chunk of ULA’s government market. SpaceX’s Jan. 16 Falcon Heavy launch, at $316 million, is just $34 million off from ULA’s Delta 4 Heavy price tag, and a far cry from the $90 million to $150 million SpaceX has touted. And this isn’t a one-off. SpaceX’s NASA contract to launch the first pieces of agency’s Lunar Gateway space station on a Falcon Heavy was priced at $331.8 million. Why is SpaceX charging so much? Well, like ULA knew years prior, it’s good to have a monopoly. The Delta 4 Heavy is phasing out and ULA’s Vulcan is years behind schedule (as is rival Blue Origin’s New Glenn). For America’s heaviest satellites, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy is the only ride in town. SOURCE: https://qz.com/spacex-raising-capital-at-137-billion-dollar-valuation-1849984490?

1/6/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry It’s been over a year since we saw any real news about Space One, the Japanese consortium developing a small launcher (100kg to 500km). The Kairos solid-fueled rocket is projected to launch in February from the privately built Space Port Kii. Canon’s 44% stake in the venture is of particular interest to us. Perhaps a turnkey launch service will help them sell imaging satellites? SOURCE: https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/japans-space-one-finally-ready-for-blast-off/

1/6/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry Poland is poised to become one of the few countries with very high-resolution satellites. Airbus is supplying two satellites based on its Pleiades Neo platform (Pleiades Neo can natively image at 30cm resolution, but the specifics for Poland’s pair haven’t been confirmed). It’s common for nations with confrontational neighbors to procure powerful satellite imaging systems (see Israel, Japan and South Korea), so Poland’s move here isn’t a surprise. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was sufficient provocation for Poland, which has historically been on high alert regarding their neighbor to the east. What is modestly surprising is Poland’s pivot back to Europe and away from China. Poland signed a Belt and Road agreement with China in 2015, and a year later announced plans to jointly build satellites. We say only “modestly surprising” because Polish-Chinese relations deteriorated pretty quickly last year when Poland condemned Russian aggression while China stayed silent. It will be interesting to watch the impact of this large national investment on Poland’s emerging space industry. Poland is home to SatRev, a startup planning an EO constellation of more than 1,000 satellites. The European Space Agency relies on some Polish contractors to support its Copernicus remote sensing program, and in October formed a Business Incubation Center with the goal of incubating 35 companies over the next five years. SOURCE: https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-01-airbus-to-provide-poland-with-a-very-high-resolution-optical

1/5/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry Green bubble texters finally have their rival to Apple and Globalstar. Iridium’s mystery Direct-to-Device (DTD) partner is Qualcomm, and together the companies plan to enable texting and emergency messaging to Android phones starting in the second half of 2023. Qualcomm is a frequent investor and participant in the satellite industry. While admittedly a surprise (speculation pinned Samsung as Iridium’s partner), we view Qualcomm as a strong ally for Iridium as the DTD race heats up. Compared to Apple and Globalstar, Iridium already has a completed constellation of 66 satellites and nine spares – more than double that of Globalstar, and has a robust network of value added resellers accustomed to embedding Iridium chipsets in diverse hardware. We expect more DTD initiatives to emerge throughout 2023, especially those aimed at low-data-rate services like texting. We also expect these new business plans to move faster than regulators do with okaying spectrum applications. What will it look like when these two trends collide? SOURCE: https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/05/qualcomm-partners-with-iridium-to-bring-satellite-messaging-to-android-phones/

1/3/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry SpaceX kicked off the year with a truckload of satellites for numerous operators around the world. We won’t detail all of them here, but it’s worth highlighting the launch carried what appears to be a record number of space tugs on a single launch. This emerging class of vehicles is today used for last-mile deliveries, but could expand to myriad functions including satellite servicing and debris removal. The six space tugs launched were as follows: - D-Orbit cemented its lead among space tug companies with two ION spacecraft, bringing its total number launched to seven. D-Orbit plans to increase ION’s functionality to eventually include in-orbit services - Launcher, the small launch startup, took a shortcut to orbit by launching its first OTV well ahead of its first rocket (expected in 2024). Worryingly, the company hasn’t provided any updates about the OTV, called Orbiter, since the launch date - Skykraft, an Australian startup, launched a space tug carrying four of its own satellites for a future air traffic management constellation of 200 satellites. Weighing 300kg fully loaded, the space tug and satellites are collectively heavier than the combined weight of all past Australian-built satellites, according to the Australian Space Agency. After initial testing success, Skykraft announced plans for further constellation launches across this year and into early 2024 - After the failure of its first vehicle last year, Momentus returned to flight with Vigoride-5. The company’s last update, on Jan. 9, indicated the vehicle is healthy, though it had not yet deployed any satellites - Epic Aerospace, a San Francisco, California startup, launched first tug, Chimera LEO 1, but has not posted any updates since separating from Falcon 9’s upper stage SOURCE: https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/01/03/falcon-9-transporter-6-live-coverage/

1/3/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry Viasat completed the sale of its Link-16 business to L3Harris for $2 billion, a deal that came as a surprise because it did not align with speculation or the company’s apparent rationale for divestitures. Mark Dankberg, Viasat CEO, said during the company’s third quarter earnings call August 8 that Viasat prioritized synergistic business units and those with strong growth potential. Given that Viasat’s Link-16 business was aligned with the company’s future and a promising growth sector, the only rationale that makes sense to us is that Viasat wanted to do something to offset heavy spending on Viasat-3, reining in the company’s debt load. Three years of delays and technical challenges have, by our estimation, added ~$1 billion to the cost of Viasat-3. By selling its Link-16 business, Viasat expects to net $1.8 billion in proceeds, offsetting those costs and providing additional capital. Link-16, a tactical data communications technology, fit that criteria well for the following reasons: - Viasat has multiple contracts to provide Link-16 hardware for the Space Development Agency’s proliferated LEO constellation that could number up to 1,000 satellites. - Viasat was building a Link-16 satellite with Blue Canyon called XVI meant to demonstrate how to extend Link-16 to space, enabling a new method of secure, beyond-line-of-sight communications. - Viasat has strong interest in the Pentagon’s quest to connect all sensors through the Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2) program, which will incorporate Link-16. - Dankberg described Link-16 from space as having “significant synergy opportunities” and an area in which Viasat has been successful. SOURCE: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-completes-sale-of-link-16-tactical-data-links-business-to-l3harris-technologies-for-1-96-billion-301712692.html

1/2/2023 - Written By Caleb Henry An example of what happens when deSPAC’d companies lead off with inflated growth projections they had slim chances of hitting – Satellogic now expects less than 20% of the revenue for 2022 that it anticipated a year ago. Instead of $47 million for fiscal 2022, Satellogic is now headed towards $6-8 million for the year. As a result, Satellogic plans to shed 18% of its workforce, delay indefinitely construction of a Netherlands satellite factory, and scale back launches to a maximum of 21 satellites in 2023. Satellogic is far from the only company to promote unrealistic growth ahead of a SPAC IPO (BlackSky lowered its forecast in February 2022, as did Spire in July 2021). One silver lining from Satellogic’s business update is its win of a three-year contract with the government of Albania, worth $6 million a year for priority access to two satellites. That puts Satellogic in a strong position to at minimum double its resume in 2023. SOURCE: https://spacenews.com/revenue-shortfall-causes-layoffs-and-delays-at-satellogic/

Mar 31 - Written by Caleb Henry . Few operators have given a more damning assessment of the prospects for GEO connectivity than Telesat. During the company’s March 27 earnings call, management acknowledged that it has not purchased a new GEO satellite in nine years and feels no compulsion to change this even with two more satellites, Anik F2 and F3, so low on fuel they must shift into inclined orbits to stave off retirement. Telesat’s reasoning, per CEO Dan Goldberg: the company hasn’t been able to close a compelling business case for a GEO satellite in some time. Telesat reported a C$267M ($187M) impairment charge for 2024, up 235% y/y as broadcast customers forgo satellite transmissions and broadband customers increasingly move to Starlink. Some C$39.7M of the impairment was specifically reported against Telstar-18 Vantage, a high-throughput satellite launched in 2018 and once considered a key growth driver. Telesat’s own LEO constellation, Lightspeed, is about a year and a half away from launching. Telesat is the second major GEO operator to disclose a notable impairment charge reflecting difficulty selling GEO capacity. Eutelsat in February disclosed a €535M ($560 million) impairment on its GEO assets, from which it now expects lower revenues. Here another flagship high-throughput satellite, the Konnect VHTS launched in 2022, is seeing headwinds competing against Starlink. Over in Japan, Sky Perfect JSAT gave a similarly blunt assessment even while preparing to order a new GEO satellite from Thales Alenia Space. In a transcript of the company’s Feb. 6 earnings call, JSAT President Eiichi Yonekura said that after 36 years in GEO orbit, the company has to look elsewhere to grow. “Since 1989, we have launched over 30 GEO satellites, but for future growth, relying only on GEO will not work. So, we are expanding into medium and low Earth orbits as well,” he said. JSAT’s multi-orbit expansion is, so far, LEO-focused through a partnership with Earth observation operator Planet for 10 optical satellites, and a collaboration with iQPS on radar imagery. Telesat is fully committed to Lightspeed as its growth engine, while Eutelsat is investing heavily in LEO through its OneWeb constellation and the EU’s IRIS2 network. Despite the hype around multi-orbit as the way forward, write-downs in the value of GEO satellites, the perennially underwhelming numbers of new GEO orders, and the surging investments in LEO and MEO alternatives are starting to tell a different story. SOURCE: https://www.telesat.com/press/press-releases/telesat-reports-results-for-the-quarter-and-twelve-months-ended-december-31-2024/

Apr 21 - Written by Chris Quilty Credit: Gilat Just a month ago in Washington DC, “multi-orbit” was the talk of the show at Satellite 2025. Multi-orbit, in aviation industry parlance, refers to the concept of pairing GEO and LEO services to achieve optimal service levels. LEO provides raw capacity and low latency. GEO provides video streaming, hub city coverage, and expanded geographic coverage (where LEO is not authorized). But the cracks in that thesis, which were already evident at Satellite 2025, became a fissure last week when Airbus reshuffled its line card for the company’s flagship HBCplus program.   But first, what’s wrong with the multi-orbit thesis? Panasonic COO, John Wade, who was previously the President of Commercial Aviation for Gogo for 12 years, was arguably the first major executive to question the multi-orbit orthodoxy. In 2023, just as Panasonic was concluding a major GEO capacity expansion with Intelsat, Eutelsat and APT Satellite, Wade declared the company’s new tagline was “ leading with LEO .” Others are now joining the bandwagon. Nancy Walker, Anuvu’s Chief Commercial officer, recently told ViaSatellite Magazine : “when we say multi-orbit, we mean LEO 99% of the time and GEO when we need it.” Not exactly a glowing endorsement of GEO, and that’s from a company with two smallGEOs in orbit . Gogo is likewise repositioning to LEO as it faces a frontal assault from Starlink Aviation in its core business aviation market. Gogo struck a OneWeb distribution agreement  in May 2022 followed by the unveiling of a OneWeb Electronically Steered Antenna (ESA) co-developed with Hughes . Finally in December 2024, the company acquired Satcom Direct, giving it a second ESA pathway  along with highly complementary market access. The company’s investor pitch deck declared “LEO/ESA is the catalyst for dramatic penetration rate acceleration” in the Business Aviation sector. Aircraft builder Airbus, who’s influence as an over IFC is almost unparalleled, apparently agrees.  The HBCplus program, which serves as Airbus’ “pre-approved list” of hardware vendors and Managed Service Providers (MSPs), made a conspicuous shift in the direction of LEO.  GetSat/Thales, which was selected to provide a dual-beam Ku-band antenna is apparently getting the axe in favor of a single-beam ESA optimized for LEO.  But the biggest changes were in the Ka portfolio, where Viasat GX was removed in favor of Hughes and Amazon, neither of which currently possesses global Ka-band coverage. Viasat, with 13 active GEO Ka-band satellites on orbit, was the natural choice for an IFC partner in a GEO-centric or multi-orbit world, but until recently Viasat lacked a credible LEO strategy. Earlier this month, Viasat inked a partnership with Telesat  to distribute the company’s LightSpeed service, but the move was apparently too little, too late for Airbus (Telesat is trailing Amazon by ~2 years).  The Viasat/Telesat combination should represent a compelling offering for airlines that value a multi-orbit solution and/or a (non-Amazon) Ka-band LEO service, and could become increasingly important to Viasat as more airlines opt for a LEO-only approach. Echoing this point, Starlink Aviation, which serves business and commercial aviation sectors, recently announced that it has more than 3,000 aircraft committed to its LEO service. The vast majority, if not all, are presumably flying LEO only. LEO constellations are offering blazing data rates, better look angles, and lower latency than their GEO counterparts. If GEO operators can’t find meaningful competitive differentiation, they risk ceding the IFC market to lower orbits. SOURCE: https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2025/04/airbus-adds-amazon-confirms-hughes-removes-viasat-gx-from-hbcplus/

Apr 11 - Written by Caleb Henry The vitality of Starlink in Ukraine put wind in the sales of the European Union’s IRIS² constellation, and is stirring talks in Canada of wedding sovereign communications needs to local champion Telesat Lightspeed. More recently, a wave of smaller nations have proposed constellations of their own. The German military wants a constellation  to replace Starlink, and is contemplating a system separate from the EU that would cost up to €10B, led by German companies. South Korea wants to have a 6G network  of LEO satellites by 2030. And Taiwan’s space agency is building a sovereign constellation, having ordered payload and user terminal technology  from CesiumAstro. In years past, nations wanting sovereign communications often ordered a single geostationary satellite – Bangabandhu-1 for Bangladesh, Chinggis Sat for Mongolia, TurkmenAlem-52E for Turkmenistan, etc. – a practice that was controversial in its own right for dumping government-funded capacity onto the world market, distorting competition. Today national satellites sound sanguine in the face of full-fledged national constellations. Combined with national constellations already underway (PWSA, IRIS², Guowang, and Thousand Sails) government-led LEO networks may outnumber commercial versions in the coming years. But government LEO constellations come with several challenges, especially for smaller nations, notably: Capacity dispersion. LEO networks spread bandwidth across most, if not all of the Earth’s surface. This is a challenge even for global operators, but will be amplified for small countries that only care about connecting their geographies. Orbital carrying capacity.  Studies are underway now to determine how many constellations LEO can support , but for the time being, space safety may require separation distances that push latecomers to higher orbits. Above 600km, debris lasts much longer, radiation is harsher, and the signals needed to close links with the ground require more power. Fewer satellites are needed, but these other factors make them more expensive to build. Spending burdens.  Constellations cost billions of dollars to deploy, and cost burdens can easily reach an order of magnitude above GEO. Replenishment needs make this a recurring cost. Small countries may have to allocate a significant portion of their budgets to wield a LEO broadband constellation. Quilty’s takeaway: national LEO constellations will be a more difficult trend to hop on than GEO. Because of this, countries need to evaluate if they truly need a LEO network, and if they can pull one off, or if they would be better served through other forms of sovereign communications (small GEOs, anyone?). SOURCE: https://www.heise.de/en/news/A-special-Starlink-the-Bundeswehr-tests-development-of-satellite-constellations-10345465.html#

Mar 18 - Written by Quilty Space Every year the Satellite conference has a slightly different feel, as industry participants grapple with the latest developments. Quilty Space attended the conference and participated in two panel discussions as well as a host of meetings. Here are our top five themes from this year’s show. 1. The Multi-Orbit Quandary. The jury’s still out on multi-orbit, whether there’s real demand or if it’s a consolation prize conjured up by GEO operators trying to compete against Starlink. Technologically, multi-orbit works but has material weaknesses in user terminal quality and ground network orchestration. These areas need improvement to make the service compelling. Aero connectivity was the one bright spot where GEO-LEO is making a strong showing. In maritime, LEO-LEO looks to be an emerging trend. 2. The Rising Alt-Starlink Movement. Sovereignty concerns promulgated by Trump/Musk are putting wind into the sales of every possible SpaceX alternative as countries and companies want to lessen reliance on SpaceX and the U.S. Eutelsat OneWeb is perhaps the biggest beneficiary, as discussions swirl around replacing ~40,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine with OneWeb – a slower, more expensive, and potentially capacity-constrained alternative, but one that gives Europe some sovereignty over its wartime communications. 3. The Golden Dome. Industry is awaiting details on the next generation of missile defense, strategic deterrence, and how this will shake out amid the DOGE-ing. The Space Force is poised to play a key role, but more clarity is expected by the end of the month, when a White House-mandated strategic plan should drop with details on how to thwart ballistic, hypersonic and advanced cruise missile threats to the U.S. 4. SpaceX in the Second Trump Era. And what sort of regulatory wins it will enjoy in this next inCARRnation of the government (thinking BEAD — FCC Chairman Brendan Carr suggested LEO broadband should get a third of the $42.5 billion pot, but they could also scrap the whole infrastructure part of the program, send money back to the Treasury and just subsidize Starlink instead. Will a Musk-friendly FCC authorize 30,000 satellites (unlike the past two FCC administrations)? 5. Equivocations around Kuiper. Kuiper’s silence has led to industry uncertainty about how big of a player they will be. Understanding of their service offerings, strengths and weaknesses, and competitive strategy remains low. Many seem to have mistaken Kuiper’s silence for weakness, not remembering Starlink was also disconcertingly quiet for its first four to five years. Kuiper has little need for outside investment, making early news headlines far less significant than for other startups.

Feb 18 - Written by Caleb Henry Northrop Grumman’s 2017 docking of a Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV-1) with an Intelsat satellite was a watershed moment for in-space life extension, a business idea pursued in fits and starts for the better part of two decades. That momentum appeared to slow again after the docking, with a few government-funded tech builds and three follow-on missions with Intelsat. A look at the FCC’s Pending Authorization list suggests 2025 and 2026 will be years of new landmark satellite servicing missions that could normalize in-orbit life extension. In the past eight weeks, three companies – Astroscale, Northrop Grumman and Starfish Space – have filed with the telecom regulator for spectrum authorizations covering upcoming missions. They include: 1. The Astroscale Prototype Servicer for Refueling (APS-R) spacecraft, projected to launch in mid-2026, which has two refueling demonstrations for the U.S. Space Force in super-synchronous geostationary orbit. Space Systems Command’s Assured Access to Space (AATS) program is co-funding the vehicle, which the Southwest Research Institute is building. APS-R will transfer hydrazine to client vehicles using interfaces from Orbit Fab. 2. Northrop Grumman’s second mission with MEV-1 , this time for Singtel, which has a contract for seven-months of life extension for the Optus-D3 satellite. During the mission, MEV-1 will reduce Optus-D3's orbital inclination, enabling the satellite to save fuel and add an unspecified amount of time to its service life. Northrop Grumman will first drop off Intelsat-901 (with which MEV-1 is docked) in a graveyard orbit, a process expected to take 30 days. Northrop Grumman’s Intelsat contract concludes March 30. 3. Starfish Space’s first commercial servicer , Otter-24A, slated to launch in January 2026. Otter-24A will first practice docking with Intelsat’s ITS-1 spacecraft in a graveyard orbit, before moving onto a life-extension and station-keeping mission for the 15-year-old Intelsat-17 satellite. Starfish also has a $37.5 million STRATFI contract to get an Otter spacecraft into GEO in 2026. Quilty’s Takeaway: GEO satellite operators, commercial and government, are finally warming to satellite life extension as a normal service. The lack of new commercial GEO orders (~5 per year average since 2021, excluding small GEOs like Astranis) likely exacerbates this fledgling demand trend as the absence of new capacity increased the value of the old. SOURCE: https://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/swr014b.hts?as_subsystem_code=SAT&column=ADDRESS.address_nameC/Name&fstate=0/PENDING&prepare=

Feb 10 - Written by Caleb Henry China’s satcom operators have historically been marginal players on the global stage. The lead actors, APT Satellite, AsiaSat, and China Satcom, have mainly been domestic operators, with regional exposure across the greater Indo-Pacific. The same goes for China’s satellite manufacturers and launch providers, due in no small part to U.S. regulations. But as China begins to field its own internet megaconstellations of low Earth orbit satellites, this could change. LEO constellations are intrinsically global (or near global, for those that lack polar architectures), making it a requirement to maximize the use of capacity in as many places as possible. So far, China’s Spacesail constellation has completed six launches, amassing 72 of a planned 15,000 satellites in orbit for a global network of broadband and possibly direct-to-device services. Of note, Spacesail has begun striking up international partnerships – Brazil in November, Kazakhstan in January, and on Feb. 6, Malaysia. All three countries already have a presence from SpaceX’s Starlink, Eutelsat’s OneWeb, and multiple geostationary satellite operators. Western satellite operators have faced limited competition with Chinese satellite operators in years past, but Spacesail’s progress shows this is likely to change in the next two to five years. This competition could grow more intense if other Chinese constellations like Guowang (13,000 satellites) and Honghu-3 (10,000 satellites) pursue similar global strategies. Quilty Space views emerging markets as the most likely targets for China’s LEO megaconstellation players. Countries in Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, and the Asia Pacific may welcome these new entrants, especially in countries where the binary narrative of “the U.S. or China” is not endorsed. NATO and Five Eyes countries – which tend to be wealthier, resulting in more lucrative customer deals – are very unlikely to authorize China’s megaconstellations to provide service within their borders. As LEO constellations grow in strategic importance, politics could become a(n even more) powerful decider of which services are available, and where. SOURCE: https://developingtelecoms.com/telecom-technology/satellite-communications-networks/17957-measat-to-collaborate-with-china-s-spacesail-on-multi-orbit-services.html

9/12/2022 Author: Caleb Harshberger

2/4/2025 - Written by Caleb Henry Starlink servicing in Mexico First there was the September 2024 Brazil spat over unpaid fines by Elon Musk’s social media company, X, leading a court to freeze Starlink there . Then there was Italy’s battle over a potential Starlink contract in January that rattled the E.U. and led influential parliamentarian Christophe Grudler to call mere talks on the subject a “ strategic mistake ” by Italy. The latest was Canada’s threat to dissolve a $100 million Starlink deal to provide connectivity in Ontario in retaliation to President Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods (averted only by an eleventh-hour pause on tariffs ). None of this business turmoil had anything to do with the quality, affordability or availability of Starlink. Rather, each was tied, partly or wholly, to Musk. Starlink’s international business has only grown in importance over the past five years. Roughly two thirds of its consumer subscribers come from outside the U.S., and its fastest consumer adoption is in overseas markets. Starlink is now available in more than 100 countries and territories, but in a world where the operator is punished for the actions of its increasingly controversial founder, international growth is becoming more difficult. What’s more, the geopolitical links between Musk, Trump, Starlink and other countries have implications for other LEO networks. Quilty’s take is as follows: Telesat Lightspeed: Positive After struggling for years to secure funding, Lightspeed, backed by CAD$2.5B ($1.75B) of Canadian government loans, is destined to become Canada’s home team sovereign LEO constellation when it starts service in 2027. Roughly 10% of Starlink’s consumer subscribers are in Canada, meaning retaliatory tariffs have much to bite. OneWeb may also benefit in the near term, but only with enterprise and government customers, as the network is too capacity limited to support consumer internet. The Musk/Starlink dust-up could prompt potential customers to give Lightspeed’s enterprise-grade broadband network a second look. Amazon Kuiper: Neutral Kuiper is well positioned to compete with Starlink globally on cost and data speeds when it enters beta service this year. For prospective customers who view Musk as problematic (Taiwan, etc.), Kuiper is poised to offer services that appeal to consumers on affordability and enterprise/government customers on cloud-enabled resiliency. That said, Amazon Kuiper may get punished for Trump-era tariffs, should more retaliatory protectionist measures surface between the U.S. and other trading countries. Amazon’s willingness to invest in other countries ($6 billion in Mexico, for example ) may offset this risk. Eutelsat OneWeb: Positive The European Union was slow to embrace OneWeb, which started as an American company in the early 2010s, was reborn as a British company in 2020, and became French by way of acquisition through Paris-based Eutelsat in 2023. Other satellite operators including Avanti, Intelsat and Viasat are already using OneWeb service as a counter to Starlink in markets like aviation and maritime. Trump's simmering threat of tariffs on the EU could further embolden Europe to back OneWeb (which is now part of the future IRIS2 multi-orbit EU network). If OneWeb can overcome its own challenges with expensive terminals and a slow gateway rollout, it could further benefit from being a western LEO system with less political baggage than its U.S. counterparts.

Mar 21 - Written by Caleb Henry An EU and European Defence Agency Meeting. Credit EU. On March 19, the EU outlined its re-armament plan to mobilize €150 billion ($163.5 billion) in the short term and another €650 billion ($708.3 billion) in the medium term for collective defense projects. The financing plan follows the disastrous Feb. 28 Trump-Zelensky meeting and the subsequent multi-day pause in U.S. intelligence support to Ukraine. During that time, the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency stopped supplying satellite imagery to Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also clashed with Poland Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski over Starlink, with Rubio telling him “say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago,” and Musk calling him a “small man.” These events led to fears that the U.S. would also shut off Starlink in Ukraine, an outcome Musk and the U.S. government denied. Europe has rarely been good at collective defense spending, opting instead for smaller, national budgets. That mentality is giving way as the Ukraine War and friction with the U.S. forced Europe to come together (or, in the case of Germany, significantly ramp domestic defense spending). In an accompanying white paper, the EU describes its Re-Arm plan as a “once-in-a-generation surge in European defence investment,” with the goal of replenishing Ukraine’s ordnance in the short term and filling EU critical capabilities gaps in the medium-to-long term (i.e., by 2030). Where and how will this spending plan impact space? Curiously, the EU paper does not list space as one of its “seven priority areas.” The closest it gets is the seventh priority, “strategic enablers and critical infrastructure protection,” which covers the “use and protection of space and other secure communications assets” along with some capabilities partly enabled from space like ISR and maritime domain awareness. Space gets its longest mention halfway through the paper under “long-term security guarantees,” which includes the following steps: - Advancing Ukraine’s request to join the EU’s Space Program, which would give the country access to EU positioning, navigation, and timing, communications, and Earth observation resources. - Funding the Ukrainian Armed Forces access to services from EU-based commercial providers to “help Ukraine to enhance its resilience by diversifying its sources of space-based services.” - Deepening cooperation with Ukraine on protecting strategic assets, especially space assets, from cyber threats (like the KA-SAT attack in 2022), and inviting Ukraine to participate in the EU relatively new Space Information Sharing Analysis Centre (ISAC). Elsewhere, the paper highlights the European Investment Bank (EIB) plan to double its annual investment in defense-related funding to €2 billion for projects that include space. Quilty’s Take: Three years into the Russia-Ukraine War, Europe’s Re-Armament plan couldn’t come soon enough. If executed swaiftly, this plan should benefit European satcom providers, with Eutelsat OneWeb the clearest winner, followed by other members of the IRIS2 consortium like SES and Hispasat. The plan could also bolster domestic imagery providers, of which Europe already has several – Airbus, Iceye, Satlantis – to protect against future service interruptions. Lastly, cyber investments should benefit the entire space industry, but especially smaller firms that lack human resources dedicated to cyber, making them more vulnerable. SOURCE: https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/30b50d2c-49aa-4250-9ca6-27a0347cf009_en?filename=White%20Paper.pdf

1/14/2025 - Written By Caleb Henry Between the imminent debut of Blue Origin’s New Glenn and the seventh demo launch of SpaceX’s Starship, the team at SpaceX quietly hit a new record in first-stage booster reuse Jan. 10, launching a Falcon 9 booster on its 25th mission. Booster B1067 carried a payload of 21 Starlink satellites (13 for direct-to-cell, eight for broadband) from Cape Canaveral. Compared to previous reflight milestones (in increments of five), this was the first time SpaceX hit a new reuse threshold in less than a year. Additionally, the time it took to go from 20 to 25 flights on the same booster was ~10% of the time it took SpaceX to go from introducing the Falcon 9 to (June 2010) to completing its first reflight in March 2017. Reaching 25 flights is notable because that is the same number of missions Blue Origin has designed each New Glenn booster to complete before expiring. A key argument of Blue’s is that New Glenn was designed for reuse from the beginning, suggesting the company should hit reflight milestones faster than SpaceX. It took SpaceX 14.6 years to reach 25 flights with the Falcon 9, which started as an expendable vehicle and was upgraded over time for reuse. Will Blue Origin hit that target faster? Only time will tell, but there are several reasons why the answer should be yes: 1.      The normalization of reuse . In many ways, Blue Origin faces fewer barriers to reuse than SpaceX did. The regulatory environment understands reuse, the market is willing to buy launches on pre-flown boosters, and a workforce exists where reuse isn’t a foreign concept. Blue Origin’s workforce is also sprinkled with former SpaceXers who bring experience with reuse that they can apply to New Glenn. 2.      New Shepard Heritage. Despite being a suborbital vehicle, New Shepard has given Blue Origin experience with the launch, landing and reflight of a propulsive, crew-capable vehicle for the past 10 years. Many of those technologies and competencies transfer to New Glenn. 3.      Engine flight data. Four BE-4 engines (used to power New Glenn’s first stage) have already flown to space via ULA’s first two Vulcan missions, which use the engines on the rocket’s first stage. Most launch companies have to wait until after their vehicle flies to get as much engine data as Blue Origin has, but by selling engines to a third party, Blue got a sneak peek at how the engines performed before New Glenn lifts off. 4.      Cleaner fuel. New Glenn uses methalox (methane and liquid oxygen) as fuel, which burns cleaner than rocket-grade kerosene used in the Falcon 9. The cleaner burn means less soot buildup, which should reduce refurbishment and aid in faster turnaround times between launches. 5.      Design for reuse . Blue Origin’s approach to designing New Glenn enables the company to attempt a booster landing on its very first mission. Frankly, it would be astounding if it took Blue Origin the same 6.8 years as SpaceX to refly a booster, given all the prep work already done. It has taken New Glenn nine years to get from announcement to the launch pad – four longer than planned – but that will be easier to tolerate if it bears fruit in the form of rapid reuse. We might finally see the Ferociter, not just the Gradatim, that founder Jeff Bezos has long espoused. SOURCE: https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/01/10/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-21-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-cape-canaveral-5/

12/30/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry 1) Differentiated IoT products and services with the goal of building a protective moat against cannibalization by cellular options or emerging threats like Starlink; 2) Expanding into defense and challenging Iridium’s dominance in military Internet of Things (IoT); and 3) Cautiously investing in Direct-to-Device (DTD) while letting Apple lead the way After more than a decade of moving sideways, Globalstar is in the midst of a turnaround catalyzed by $1.7 billion in capital from Apple (who management affectionately refers to only as “the customer”) and an infusion of high-caliber engineering talent from Qualcomm (the former home of Globalstar CEO Paul Jacobs, CTO Matt Grob, and Chief Scientist Peter Black). The first of 17 next-gen satellites from MDA Space and Rocket Lab are progressing at pace towards launching 2025, and a larger, presumably more capable network is set to follow shortly after. The raison d’etre for Globalstar’s new lease on life is unquestionably DTD, a service for which Apple has booked 85% of the satellite operator’s capacity. In spite of this, GSAT management remains extremely circumspect of end user willingness to pay for always-on connectivity. Both at the investor day and in subsequent press articles , CEO Jacobs made it clear GSAT is taking a cautious stance out of concern it could invest too heavily in a product without a market. GSAT’s current DTD services are limited to texting and emergency comms. Management indicated it does have DTD concepts for its 15% of capacity, but that most future DTD services and expansions will come from Apple. On Defense, government customers represent just 1% of GSAT subscribers today. Compare that to Iridium, where government is 6% of total subs and backed by a lucrative seven-year, $738.5 million contract from the Defense Information Systems Agency. GSAT management indicated it would no longer willingly cede this market to Iridium, and that defense is now a priority market. The tip of the spear for GSAT’s defense strategy is an exclusive partnership with Parsons Corporation. Mike Kushin, Parson’s president of defense and intelligence, praised Globalstar’s bent-pipe constellation architecture, which relies on simple satellites and upgradable ground stations. Parsons is integrating its software-defined radios into Globalstar’s network of 30 ground stations, and believes it can sell Globalstar satellite communications devices by the millions in 2025 and 2026. We view that projection as especially bullish, but agree with the sentiment that defense is a missed opportunity that Globalstar will benefit from pursuing. On commercial IoT, GSAT is poised to return to offering a two-way service after a series of satellite amplifier failures hobbled its constellation 15 years ago. Engineers have found a workaround, and have beta tests planned for next year. Several GSAT customers at the investor day indicated high interest in a duplex service over Globalstar’s current simplex IoT service. Globalstar had 481,000 active IoT subscribers that generated a cumulative $23M in 2023, growing at a7% CAGR from 2020 to 2023. The company has found growth where low Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and low Size, Weight and Power (SWAP) devices are paramount. The elephant in the room (or perhaps the second elephant after DTD) is GSAT’s future constellation, the Extended MSS network . Management was notably tight-lipped about key architecture details such as the number of satellites it will have, what ITU filing it will use, or even when it will launch. Quilty Space continues to view the Extended MSS network as essential to offering compelling safety services for DTD, and for catalyzing long-term growth. The significance of the Extended MSS network has only grown since Globalstar said it is unlikely to execute its contract option for nine more satellites from Rocket Lab and MDA Space, but what exactly the network will look like remains a mystery. SOURCE: https://investors.globalstar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/globalstar-outlines-growth-strategy-and-financial-outlook

1/7/2025 - Written By Caleb Henry The European Union is treating Italy’s consideration of a €1.5 billion ($1.6B) contract for secure Starlink services as a binary decision between Europe and a foreign provider, the consequences of which have ramifications for the rest of the continent. It's worth pointing out up front that the “either/or” nature of the debate that erupted Jan. 5 isn’t accurate. The contract, as reported by Bloomberg, is for five years of service. If signed in 2025, it would last until 2030, essentially serving as a bridge to when the EU’s IRIS2 constellation is expected to become operational. So, why did the contract negotiations become such a lightning rod? Quilty Space identifies three reasons. -         Distrust of Musk. The SpaceX founder has morphed over the past few years from a tech icon into a polarizing political figure. A contract with Starlink is being viewed as an endorsement of Musk’s political views. -          A threat to EU jobs. Christophe Grudler, an EU Parliamentarian and key supporter of IRIS2 voiced opposition to the potential contract, citing a risk to European jobs , though it appears to be something of a red herring. If Italy were choosing Starlink over IRIS2, this would make sense, but IRIS2 isn’t here yet. Instead, Italy is gaining jobs at the Fucino Space Centre for IRIS2, which will serve as one of three key ground segment locations for the multi-orbit constellation across Europe. -          A loss of national sovereignty. Communications going over foreign satellite systems can be a touchy subject, and sometimes leads nations to use a two-pronged approach: maintain national assets while also buying commercial satcom from domestic and allied sources. Italy is doing the latter. The country has sovereign GEO comms through the Sicral and Athena-Fidus satellites, and has purchased commercial GEO satcom from Swedish provider Ovzon . Adding Starlink gives low latency, high bandwidth LEO connectivity, a resource that has proven its utility in Ukraine. The debate over Starlink in Italy bears similarity to the European launcher crisis from 2022-2024, where out of necessity, European satellites launched on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Europe’s Ariane 6 wasn’t flying, Vega C was grounded by failure, and Soyuz was removed from Europe’s rocket roster by Russian aggression. At no point was SpaceX considered a permanent replacement for European launch vehicles. The question, then with the launch and now with LEO satcom, is whether Europe should forgo an allied capability for years or accept that it can benefit from what SpaceX offers until a sovereign alternative exists. The answer, whatever Italy decides, will impact Starlink (and potentially Amazon Kuiper’s) ability to offer commercial satcom to European government customers.  SOURCE: https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-giorgia-meloni-starlink-secure-telecoms/

Image link: http://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/63f31fea00a0066f83ddc83a/1727649935972-X8YJVILCW5V21PEAR7O0/571941b6-Eutelsat+OneWeb+revenue+QT+Aug+12+%282%29.jpg 8/14/2024 - Written By Chris Quilty https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/63f31fea00a0066f83ddc83a/1727649935972-X8YJVILCW5V21PEAR7O0/571941b6-Eutelsat+OneWeb+revenue+QT+Aug+12+%282%29.jpg It’s been a pretty miserable decade if you’re a GEO operator. The spectrum skirmishes over Ku and Ka-bands kicked things off, followed by a relentless arms race to launch increasingly more powerful HTS satellites. Meanwhile, consumers started cutting the cord, and the video cash cow tipped into decline beginning in the late 2010s. But the real blow came from Starlink’s efforts to decimate the GEO industry, particularly in the maritime sector, where LEO is anchoring itself as the dominant technology. KVH Industries, a top-five maritime bandwidth seller, has shuttered its GEO antenna product line and is now onboarding ~600 new Starlink subscribers each quarter — compared to just ~600 GEO subscribers annually in the past. With that context, Eutelsat’s Q4 earnings report was a breath of fresh air. Eutelsat grew annual revenues for the first time in eight years, and backlog is up for the first time in four years. The catalyst for the turnaround? Aside from new GEO capacity, the biggest growth driver was OneWeb. While Eutelsat does not disclose OneWeb revenues, we estimate OneWeb FY24 revenues at ~€80M, or 7% of revenues. That’s a disappointment relative to Eutelsat’s revised July 2023 target of €125-€225M, due to delays in deploying the ground network that have pushed back OneWeb’s global service launch by eight months to date. This delay will prevent OneWeb from hitting its 2027 revenue target of >€600M, but even achieving half of that would account for 21% (1) of Eutelsat’s revenues and contribute to rapidly expanding EBITDA margins. The takeaway? Eutelsat faced plenty of skepticism over its OneWeb acquisition, but it’s clear now that OneWeb represents the company’s most compelling growth opportunity. As it turns out, thereem>is ol data-rte-list="default">li>1. Assumes legacy GEO business remains flat. SOURCE: https://www.eutelsat.com/files/EC_consolidated_financial_statements_FY24_vDEF_en.pdf /quilty-quicktakes#notify

12/18/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry

12/6/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry

11/18/2024 - Written By Kimberly Siversen Burke The summer slump got a jump in July 2023 when the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA), on behalf of Space Systems Command’s (SSC) Commercial Satellite Communications Office (CSCO), rolled out a $900M IDIQ for proliferated low Earth orbit (pLEO) satellite services. The nearly billion-dollar cap seemed massive until, in a hold-my-beer-move, DISA jacked it up another 1,300%.  That’s right. In a little over a year, the award ceiling increased to a whopping $13B . For those of us who track DoD contracts like heat-seeking missiles, the surge was all but written in the Stars(hields). Back in June , Claire Hopper, the Head of the CSCO, highlighted the program’s runaway demand at the Milsatcom USA conference.  “We are burning through our procurement contract ceiling really quickly,” she said. “So, we are working with DISA right now to increase that ceiling well into the billions. We do view this contract as being a workhorse, and the demand for it is off the charts.”  Tell us you’re talking about Starshield without saying Starshield, Claire.  To clarify, the pLEO IDIQ would cover task orders for satcom services on the Starlink network, branded by the military as “Starshield.” This is distinct from the government-owned and operated satellites such as those that are now a part of the proliferated constellation that the NRO is deploying under a separate not-so-secret $1.8 billion-dollar deal with SpaceX.  If the pLEO contract is any barometer of demand, it is no wonder the military is “tripping over” Starshields. SpaceX has already snatched up 97% of the pLEO task orders. But what about the other 19 awardees?  We dove into the labyrinth of government contracting to identify who might be cashing in on this $13 billion-dollar kitty.  Teeing up a pLEO-Powered Marketplace   To level set, the pLEO IDIQ is more than just a funding vehicle. It’s foundational to the Pentagon’s vision of embedding commercial technologies into military ops. DISA and SSC’s CSCO launched the program in 2021 with an RFI and formalized it with an RFP in September 2022 . The goal was to establish a marketplace of pre-selected vendors offering ready-to-deploy solutions across all military branches. Although most of the players chosen focus on low-latency LEO broadband, awardees like Inmarsat, SES, BlackSky, and AT&T round out the menu with complementary capabilities.  In three different award rounds that began in July 2023 , DISA set up the marketplace with 20 vendors that would be eligible to compete for task orders. While each contract only guaranteed a $2,000 minimum, the total potential stood at $900M – now $13B – spanning a five-year performance period through 2028 with an optional 5-year extension.  The pLEO Roster: Who’s Cashing in?   While only five of the 20 awardees have received task orders under the pLEO IDIQ so far, it’s worth remembering that we have more than eight years and $12B left to go. A breakdown of the key contracts:  1. SpaceX: Dominating the field with 40 task orders totaling $631 million, SpaceX’s contract for services in Ukraine was pulled under the pLEO IDIQ in August and is worth an eye-popping $537M ($106M every six months).  2. RiteNet Corp.: The full contract value of RiteNet’s pLEO task orders to the U.S. Air Force totals just over $12M.  3. OneWeb Technologies: Including the base and all exercised options, OneWeb appears to have been awarded $4.1M across two pLEO task orders to provide satcom services to the U.S. Army.  4. Kuiper Government Solutions: There is little doubt the pLEO budget increase was partially motivated by the prospect of Amazon Kuiper coming online combined with the DoD’s desire to diversify its LEO broadband vendor base. In the interim, KSG clinched a one-time $450k antenna study with AFRL under the pLEO IDIQ.  5. Trace Systems: Landed a $39k task order from the U.S. Navy under the pLEO IDIQ.  The following 15 companies are in the bullpen, ready to compete for future task orders:  1. Arinc Incorporated (Collins Aerospace |RTX)  2. Artel, LLC  3. AT&T  4. BlackSky  5. Capella Federal  6. DRS Global Enterprise Solutions, Inc. (SES Space & Defense)  7. Honeywell Aerospace  8. Hughes Network Systems, LLC   9. Intelsat General Communications, LLC  10. Inmarsat (Viasat) Government, Inc.  11. Iridium Communications Inc.  12. Lynk Global  13. PAR Government  14. Satcom Direct Government, Inc. (SDG)  15. UltiSat, Inc.  Why the Pentagon’s Betting Big on pLEO   With its Daddy Warbucks-like budget ceiling, the pLEO contract could also serve as a strategic safety net. Existing contracts for military satcom services or satellite imagery and analytics could migrate to the pLEO IDIQ framework, especially those facing funding challenges or approaching the end of their performance periods.  The IDIQ could also support emerging technologies like direct-to-device (DTD) from AST SpaceMobile through its partner pLEO award recipient AT&T – a telco titan with billions in existing government contracts, including the FirstNET public safety broadband network.  Other key government contractors that are a part of the marketplace, including Inmarsat-Viasat and SES Space and Defense (via its subsidiary DRS GES), may see future task orders to integrate multi-orbit solutions such as O3b mPOWER into the pLEO architecture.  This ability to rapidly on-ramp existing services offers the DoD a streamlined path to operationalize the latest commercial tech to remain agile and responsive in an increasingly contested space domain. And even if SpaceX continues to feast at the head of this $13 billion-dollar table, the crumbs left could still satisfy quite a few appetites.    Government Contract Sources:   Federal Procurement Data System   USA Spending   HigherGov   GovSpeak Glossary:  DISA: the Defense Information Systems Agency – a support agency of the Department of Defense (DoD) that is working on behalf of Space Systems Command’s (SSC) Commercial Satellite Communications Office (CSCO) to manage the pLEO IDIQ.  IDIQ: Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity is a contract type that provides for an indefinite quantity of supplies or services during a fixed period of time.  pLEO: Proliferated LEO in this context refers broadly to the DoD’s strategy to build a resilient, redundant, cost-effective satellite architecture with a low Earth orbit (read: low latency, high data rate) satcom and/or satellite imaging (hence BlackSky & Capella’s inclusion) component.  RFI (Request for Information): A call to companies to ask what they have to offer.  RFP (Request for Proposal): A follow-up from an RFI where companies are asked to share their pitch, pricing, and execution details.  Starshield: As it relates to this pLEO procurement, the militarized version of Starlink satcom services and terminals that run on the commercial Starlink network, and not the government-owned and operated Starshield satellite constellation.

11/13/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry If SpaceX achieves VP of Flight Kiko Dontchev’s recently established goal of another 26 launches by the end of the year, the company will not only notch a new record, but set the stage for an even higher flight rate in 2025. SpaceX eclipsed last year’s total of 98 launches in October and is now targeting (for the next seven weeks) an average launch rate of once every two days – twice the pace of 2023, and faster than the company moved at the beginning of 2024. This year’s record-setting pace included three pauses for anomalies – events that historically grounded vehicles for months, but in SpaceX’s case, an abundance of flight data reduced to days or weeks. Even with Starship on the horizon, 2025 will be another year dominated by Falcon 9 flights. Musk indicated in his June talk with Tim Dodd that SpaceX was making "almost 200 upper stages of Falcon” this year, and that next year will be “probably over 200.” SpaceX needs the higher flight rate now because it is effectively deploying two of its own constellations at once – the classic broadband Starlink, and the new direct-to-device Starlink – both of which need thousands of satellites. Plus, SpaceX is launching at least two constellations for the U.S. military – the SpaceX-built Starshield spy satellite network and the Space Development Agency’s PWSA missile-warning constellation. These sources of internal and government demand are offsetting the rapid decline in GEO satellite launch, which has become a rarity in the constellation age. SOURCE: https://x.com/TurkeyBeaver/status/1856104249261752783

11/7/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry In September, the U.S. Space Force selected four companies – Astranis, Axient, L3Harris and Sierra Space – to submit design concepts for a layer of “Resilient GPS” (R-GPS) aimed at producing smaller, more affordable spacecraft to supplement the existing GPS system. The news got a second boost Nov. 1 thanks to a media push by Astranis, which heralded the development as an expansion of their business into a new orbit (MEO) and a new type of satellite (PNT). While those are big steps for a company that based its whole reputation on building and operating small telecom satellites in GEO, the significance of the GPS study goes far beyond this one company. DoD currently relies on GPS satellites from Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Boeing built the GPS-2F series, but withdrew from subsequent competition in 2016, clearing the way for Lockheed to win the latest generation, GPS-3. Lockheed is under contract to build 10 GPS-3 satellites and 22 more advanced GPS-3F satellites. And while technologically the satellites are highly capable, their development was slow – it took 15 years to build 10 satellites , only six of which have launched . DoD’s study contractors are new faces – none have been primes on a GPS constellation before. The most experienced is arguably L3Harris, which supplied payloads to Lockheed for the GPS-3 fleet as a subcontractor. Curiously, Axient is teamed with “mega-GEO” satellite startup K2 Space on its study contract. Sierra Space, having booked over $1B in satellite orders in recent years says it is “ retooling ” commercial capacity to focus on defense programs like R-GPS.  The study program shows that DoD’s push to include nontraditional space contractors has extended beyond the Space Development Agency and its flagship PWSA constellation. With a wider pool of companies, DoD is increasing competition and reducing the odds of vendor lock. DoD, through the R-GPS program, is also replicating SDA’s “spiral development” with what it calls LEAPs, short for Lite Evolving Augmented Proliferation, where every eight satellites add new capabilities. So far three LEAPS are being discussed, each with up to eight satellites. Lastly, R-GPS shows how other branches of DoD are thinking about disaggregated satellite systems, where strength in numbers takes greater importance than exquisite capabilities. Through R-GPS, the Space Force hopes to have satellites that cost $50-80 million apiece, not the reported $250 million of a GPS-3F satellite. The next question, naturally, is what other military satellite systems will adopt a proliferated approach? Through SDA, missile warning and Link-16 secure comms are headed in that direction. As of May, the Space Force is also exploring multi-orbit for future narrowband communications. Other military comms networks, notably wideband (WGS) and protected (AEHF) remain GEO-centric but could also see a migration to NGSO orbits if this trend continues. SOURCE: https://www.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3914829/

11/4/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry Constellations are never quick, and Europe’s IRIS2 is no exception. After four years in planning purgatory, the European Commission surprised no one Oct. 31 by selecting the SpaceRise Consortium led by Eutelsat, Hispasat and SES to create the secure, multi-orbit government communications network of ~290 satellites. There wasn't really any competition – Europe’s three largest satellite operators and three largest satellite manufacturers (Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, and OHB) were all part of the same bid. Within two months, a contract should be signed, and cost/performance targets should (hopefully) be disclosed. Citing anonymous sources, Space Intel Report reported that Eutelsat will contribute €2 billion to the program while Hispasat and SES will contribute approximately €1 billion apiece. When it was first proposed in early 2020, the IRIS2 program had no clear purpose beyond establishing a European counterweight to American, Canadian, and British investments in LEO constellations. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years later transformed the debate, however, as it became apparent that Europe’s traditional GEO architecture could not measure up to Starlink’s battlefield success. Despite widespread general support, IRIS2 also attracted plenty of criticism and was forced to navigate at least three blows, any of which could have been fatal to the program. - Airbus and Thales Alenia Space rescinded their offer to financially support the consortium this summer , shrinking the private sector contribution. - Germany fought against IRIS2, citing a doubling of costs from €6B to nearly €12B, and; - Thierry Breton, the EC commissioner who championed IRIS2, resigned suddenly in September. Meanwhile, SES, Eutelsat, and Hispasat have continued investing in their next-gen satellite systems while awaiting approval of IRIS2. This includes SES’ acquisition of Intelsat, which will clearly limit SES’ investment in IRIS2. While the full implications for each company will become clearer as IRIS2 matures, here is how Quilty Space views the EC’s decision affecting all three so far: Hispasat. As the smallest operator of the three, Hispasat arguably has the most to gain. The Spanish regional operator long deemed a solo LEO constellation too expensive. The company invested in startup LeoSat in 2018, but the venture collapsed in 2020 after failing to find additional supporters. IRIS2 would provide Hispasat with a multi-orbit solution while also boosting the prospects for Spanish vendors seeking to participate in the program, as Hispasat often weaves domestic hardware companies into its supply chain for satellite procurements. SES.  With around 70 satellites spread across MEO and GEO orbits, SES is Europe’s largest satellite operator and the world’s only (organic) multi-orbit operator. Thus, IRIS2 appears to be a “medium” win for SES that could turbocharge existing programs. The company is planning a proliferated MEO constellation that management recently said it would build “with or without” IRIS2. If the pMEO constellation is executed in tranches, as currently envisioned, the EC could finance a portion of this network. Prior to the IRIS2 announcement, Quilty Space estimated that SES adding a megaMEO would likely require incremental capex of $500-$700 million on top of our ~$700 million forecast (2026-2028).  Eutelsat. IRIS2 once appeared like it could be OneWeb’s second generation of satellites, but the EC’s timeline suggests that won’t be possible, at least not without a continuation of Gen-1, or an interim generation to bridge the gap. The EC’s goal is to have IRIS2 in service by 2030, which is too far out to serve as a bridge from OneWeb Gen-1. Most of Eutelsat’s OneWeb fleet launched from 2021-2022, with satellites designed for seven years. Unlike Iridium’s Gen-1, these satellites are not expected to materially surpass their design lives, meaning Eutelsat can't wait until 2030 to get replacements in orbit. Quilty Space will conduct a deeper study on IRIS2 after the EC signs the manufacturing contract and when more details are released about the constellation’s architecture. SOURCE: https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/iris2-european-commission-awards-concession-contract-spacerise-consortium-2024-10-31_en

10/28/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry SES has long dreamed of a large constellation in medium Earth orbit, but an Oct. 21 presentation by SVP of Future Business & Innovation Mohammed Marashi was the most forceful evidence that the company is shifting from contemplation to action. Speaking at the Silicon Valley Space Week in California, Marashi detailed an evolution of the company’s O3b constellation that borrows heavily from the principles of LEO networks.   SES’s third generation of O3b, tentatively slated for 2028, would expand the equatorial network to a global one, while also providing a lower cost per bit, faster refresh cycles, and improved resiliency, per Marashi. So strong is SES’s conviction around the Gen-3 constellation that Marashi said it “will happen with or without IRIS2,” the European Commission’s multi-orbit network that could partially finance the next iteration of O3b.   Marashi’s talk only described the Gen-3 O3b at a high level, without specific targets such as satellite mass or design. No number of satellites was given either, though an accompanying visual graphic suggests a constellation of around 150 spacecraft.   Risks:   Heavy capex lift. SES announced in April that it was acquiring rival Intelsat for $3.1 billion – a move that will more than double SES’s GEO fleet but will also boost leverage to an uncomfortably high 3.5x. SES had indicated that the (post-merger) leverage would narrow to 3.0x over the next 18 months, but adding a megaMEO would likely require incremental capex of $500-$700 million on top of our ~$700 million forecast (2026-2028).    Lagging terminal strategy.  Despite SES’ 2018 investment in three flat-panel antenna manufacturers, O3b customers are still largely dependent on dual parabolic tracking antennas that cost multiple six figures and require a small basketball team’s worth of people to install. By contrast, a Starlink enterprise terminal costs $2,500 and can be carried/installed by a single worker. An improved Gen 3 constellation with no improvement in terminal options may be no improvement at all.    Distributed manufacturing. Rather than selecting a single prime contractor, Marashi floated the concept of selecting multiple satellite manufacturers and awarding contracts in batches, similar to the Space Development Agency’s PWSA tranches. This nontraditional approach would increase supply resiliency but could result in slower deliveries and increased costs due to the lack of scale manufacturing.    Rewards:  Hitting the accelerator. Marashi is right about the need for industry to move faster than it has in the past. SpaceX’s Starlink network grows bigger and better every year, while GEO (and MEO) satellites stay largely unchanged. It's not an exaggeration to say today’s greatest satellites will be tomorrow’s Blackberry phones. Only continuous investment in new technology will prevent today’s leaders from being out-innovated.   Safety in numbers. SES’s legacy O3b satellites, some of which are around a decade old, were built much like GEO satellites, just put in a different orbit. Per Marashi, the old O3b network had redundancy built into the satellites via duplicate components, but not the safety in numbers that large LEO constellations rely upon. A truly proliferated MEO constellation should offer many of LEO's advantages with affordability more closely resembling GEO. This is especially important given that half of SES’s Networks business is government customers (75% U.S.), and defense agencies have taken a very strong interest in proliferated networks like Starlink, OneWeb, PWSA, and Kuiper.   Going Global.  Operating from an equatorial orbit, the Gen-1 O3b constellation provides coverage to 50 degrees latitude, and the Gen-2 mPower system is adding 13 satellites at a 70-degree inclination to expand geographic coverage. Adding Gen 3 satellites to a polar orbit will enable 100% global coverage, allowing SES to capitalize on polar aviation routes and the DoD's growing interest in the arctic region.   SOURCE: https://news.satnews.com/2024/10/21/ses-we-can-collaborate/

10/23/2024 - Written By Caleb Henry On Oct. 21, United Launch Alliance began integrating its third Vulcan rocket on a mission that, if done this year, positions the company to make good on an ambitious launch cadence in 2025. While no launch date was given, ULA progressed from integration to launch in 14 days for its last mission, suggesting a launch is soon.   ULA has completed six of a planned eight launches in 2024 – three Atlas 5s, two Vulcans, and the final Delta 4 Heavy. The company is planning 20 launches next year, and claims many of the rockets, a combination of Vulcans and Atlas 5s, are already built .  Quilty Space has been quick to highlight that despite aggressive ramp up plans announced by launch companies, precedent shows new rockets struggle to launch more than three times annually in their early years. That said, ULA appears ready to buck that trend.  If ULA launches Vulcan in November, it would match the pace SpaceX achieved with the debut of the Falcon 9, which completed its first three launches in 11 months. If Vulcan launches a fourth time within 16 months, it will outpace Falcon 9 and Rocket Lab’s Electron with the fastest early ramp up of a modern launch vehicle.   Since ULA does not own a megaconstellation (a la SpaceX’s Starlink), there is no expectation its launch rate will pass 100 a year. Still, ULA’s stated goal of averaging around 25 Vulcan launches a year is poised to reintroduce launcher diversity to a market clamoring for it.   Here is Quilty Space’s assessment of the implications:  - The (almost) return of launcher competition. No Western launch operator is on track to launch anywhere close to SpaceX’s rate with the Falcon 9, but the industry wants and will benefit from having a second medium-to-heavy lift vehicle with a steady flight cadence. ULA’s manifest is, in the words of CEO Tory Bruno, “ very full ” through 2026. While not a near-term fix, ULA’s recent progress, 2025 goals, and backlog of commercial, military and civil government missions suggest it will be ready to maintain an aggressive flight rate.   - Proof the SRB anomaly was minor. Vulcan had a visible malfunction during its second flight when one of its two solid-rocket boosters from Northrop Grumman lost a nozzle . The anomaly didn’t affect the final mission, which still reached its intended target in space. Returning to flight preparations within weeks of that mission offers proof the anomaly was as minor as ULA has indicated. ULA has done something similar before. In 2016, an Atlas 5 Centaur upper stage compensated for an underperformance of the rocket's first stage. Intra-vehicle resiliency has reinforced ULA’s reliability in the past, and is doing the same now. - A win for Kuiper. Some 53% of Amazon’s Kuiper launch capacity is slated booked on ULA Vulcan rockets. This outsized portion compared to Arianespace (which plans six Ariane 6 launches in 2025, inclusive of Kuiper and other customers) and Blue Origin (who’s New Glenn rocket has yet to launch), means no other company is as important for Kuiper to reach its goal of starting service in 2025. Vulcan’s pace to date bodes well for meeting that target.  SOURCE: https://x.com/ulalaunch/status/1848428959349760147